m&a

One way to make e-commerce work is to sell high margin products online — ideally, products that are necessarily high margin in the brick and mortar world to account for distribution costs. Therefore, going online cuts out the middlemen and you can profit even while selling for less. Proven examples include eyeglasses, cosmetics, baby products, and so on.

Re/code has a fascinating story on another example: Harry’s, for razor blades. What makes Harry’s so interesting is that the company raised $197 million on a $350 million valuation on basically zero revenue (they have sales, but at a level insignificant relative to the size of investment).

In short, investors are investing solely on the basis of potential.

Re/code is painting this as yet another example of technology’s growing bubble. But let’s dive deeper — far from a being sign of investor irrationality, this transaction might actually make rational sense.

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Microsoft is acquiring Minecraft maker Mojang for $2.5 billion. I’ve got mixed feelings about the transaction.

The strategic benefits are questionable and financially, Minecraft is worth maybe $1.8 billion — a valuation which assumes a sequel is as commercially successful as the original, and which assumes the intellectual property rights founder Markus Persson took out of Mojang is part of the transaction.

A $1.8 billion valuation leaves $700 million that new revenue streams like additional merchandising, a successful movie, etc. are unlikely to cover.

The best possible explanation might be that Microsoft is using its foreign cash reserves to pay for the acquisition — money that would be difficult for Microsoft to use domestically for tax reasons.

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So it’s true. Apple really did acquire Beats for $3 billion.  It’s Apple’s largest acquisition ever.

Noted New York venture capitalist Fred Wilson raised a few eyebrows earlier this month at TechCrunch Disrupt in predicting that Apple won’t be a top three tech company by 2020.  Because Apple is “too rooted to hardware” and not capable enough with the cloud.

Consider this acquisition a bullet point to that forecast.

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