The hype for Bitcoin was almost oppressive earlier this year. I took a look and concluded it was too early to be a mainstream opportunity: it’s not consumer friendly, not widely accepted and worse, too extreme in its volatility for most to stomach.
Yet, hundreds of millions poured into Bitcoin – from rose colored speculators to blue chip venture capitalists.
Bloomberg’s recent study is a fresh reminder that hype does not always translate into immediate payoffs. Bitcoin was actually the worst performing currency of 2014, having lost 56% of its value from last year.
I do believe a non-national, digital currency like Bitcoin has real long term value, but this is over a horizon of many decades.
Until then, outside of niches like black markets where Bitcoin actually does solve problems, Bitcoin is purely speculative. In the short term, no different to tulip mania or the dot-com bubble of the late 90s.
People smarter than you and me — with more time and money — are trying to profit from Bitcoin and its volatility. Unless you’re one of those guys, it’s better not to play.